Philip Tetlock

Leonore Annenberg University Professor
BA, University of British Columbia;
PhD, Psychology, Yale University
Office Location: 
Solomon Labs, 3720 Walnut St, Room C8
Research Interests: 
Decision Processes
Social and Cultural Psychology
Research Synopsis: 
  • Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations?
  • Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Thoughtful self-critical analysis? 
  • De-biasing judgment and choice. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making?
Selected Publications: 

Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can we Know? Princeton University Press, 2005.

Tetlock, P. E. (2011). Intelligent management of intelligence analysis: Escaping the blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values. American Psychologist

Tetlock P. and Mellers B. (2011). Structuring accountability systems in organizations: Key trade-offs and critical unknowns. In Behind the Science of Intelligence Analysis, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Tetlock, P. E. (2010). Second thoughts on expert political judgment. Reply to symposium on “Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?” Critical Review.

Tetlock, P.E., & Mitchell, G. (2009). Implicit bias and accountability systems: What must organizations do to prevent discrimination? In B.M. Staw & A. Brief (Eds.), Research in organizational behavior (vol. 29). New York: Elsevier. Pp. 3-38.

Tetlock, P. E., Visser, P., Singh, R., Polifroni, M., Elson, B., Mazzocco, P., & Rescober, P. (2007).  People as intuitive prosecutors: The impact of social control motives on attributions of responsibility.  Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 43, 195-209

Moore, D., Tetlock, P.E., Tanlu, L., & Bazerman, M. (2006).  Conflicts of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral Seduction and Strategic Issue Cycling. Academy of Management Review 31 (2006):10-29.

Parker, G., Tetlock, P.E. (2006).  Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them.  In P.E. Tetlock, R.N. Lebow  & G. Parker (eds) Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History.  Ann Arbor, MI:  University of Michigan Press.  2006.

Arkes, H., & Tetlock, P.E. (2004).  Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson Fail the Implicit Association Test?" Psychological Inquiry, 15 (4), 257-278.

Tetlock, P.E. (2002).  Social-Functionalist Metaphors for Judgment and Choice: The Intuitive Politician, Theologian, and Prosecutor. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472.

Tetlock, P.E., & Lebow, R.N. (2001).  Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning. American Political Science Review, 95, 829-843. 

Tetlock, P.E. (2001).  Cognitive Biases in Path-Dependent Systems: Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics," in T. Gilovich, D.w. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (eds) Inferences, Heuristics and Biases: New Directions in Judgment Under Uncertainty. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

Tetlock, P.E., (2000).  Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Ideological Beholder? Administrative Science Quarterly 45 (2000), 293-326.

Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., & Lerner, J. (2000).  The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-Offs, Forbidden Base Rates, and Heretical Counterfactuals.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000): 853-870.

Courses Taught: 
PSYC 275 Political Psychology
PSYC 600 (proseminar) Social Psychology


Welton Chang [Psychology Graduate Student]